---
name: macro-analysis
description: Professional macro environment analysis — rates, inflation, labor, leading indicators, credit conditions, sector implications via openbb-invest-api
user-invocable: true
metadata: { "openclaw": { "emoji": "🌍", "requires": { "bins": ["curl"] } } }
---

# Macro Analysis

Generate a professional-grade macro environment report. Think like a macro strategist at a multi-asset fund.

## Data Collection

```bash
BASE=https://invest-api.k8s.home

# Headline indicators (Fed rate, yields, CPI, unemployment, GDP, VIX)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/macro/overview"

# Yield curve (rate environment, inversion = recession signal)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/fixed-income/yield-curve"

# Full treasury rates (4W to 30Y)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/fixed-income/treasury-rates"

# Effective Federal Funds Rate with percentiles
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/fixed-income/effr"

# SOFR (key benchmark rate)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/fixed-income/sofr"

# Credit spreads (stress indicator)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/fixed-income/spreads?series=tcm"

# Corporate bond yields (credit quality)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/fixed-income/hqm"

# TIPS real yields (inflation expectations)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/fixed-income/tips-yields"

# CPI inflation
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/macro/cpi?country=united_states"

# PCE (Fed's preferred inflation measure)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/macro/pce"

# GDP
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/macro/gdp?gdp_type=real"

# Unemployment
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/macro/unemployment?country=united_states"

# Money supply
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/macro/money-measures"

# Composite Leading Indicator (recession predictor)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/macro/cli?country=united_states"

# Consumer sentiment (recession leading indicator)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/economy/surveys/michigan"

# Lending conditions (strongest recession signal)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/economy/surveys/sloos"

# Employment detail
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/economy/surveys/nonfarm-payrolls"

# Manufacturing outlook
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/economy/surveys/empire-state"

# Fed balance sheet
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/economy/central-bank-holdings"

# FOMC documents (policy direction)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/economy/fomc-documents?year=2026"

# S&P 500 valuation context
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/index/sp500-multiples?series=pe_ratio"

# Short pressure on the specific stock
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/stock/{TICKER}/shorts/volume"
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/stock/{TICKER}/shorts/interest"
```

## Report Structure

```
## Macro Environment for {TICKER} — {date}

### Rate Environment
- Fed Funds Rate: {rate}% | EFFR: {rate}%
- SOFR: {rate}%
- 2Y: {rate}% | 10Y: {rate}% | 30Y: {rate}%
- Yield curve (10Y-2Y): {spread}bps — [normal / flat / inverted]
- Credit spreads: [tight = risk-on / widening = stress]
- TIPS real yield: {rate}% — [positive = tight policy / negative = accommodative]
- Rate outlook: [hawkish / dovish / neutral] based on FOMC tone

### Inflation
- CPI YoY: {%} — trend [rising / falling / stable]
- PCE YoY: {%} — Fed target 2%, current gap: {bps}
- Money supply (M2): [growing / contracting]
- Implication: Fed likely to [cut / hold / raise]

### Labor Market
- Unemployment: {%} — [tight <4% / balanced / loosening >5%]
- Nonfarm payrolls: {latest change}
- Avg hourly earnings: {YoY %} — wage inflation [hot / moderate / cooling]

### Business Cycle Position
- GDP growth: {%} — [expansion / slowing / contraction]
- CLI: {value} — [above 100 = expansion / below 100 = contraction / direction?]
- Michigan sentiment: {value} — [confident / cautious / pessimistic]
- Empire State: {value} — [expanding >0 / contracting <0]
- SLOOS: lending standards [tightening = recession risk / easing = expansion]

### Liquidity & Central Bank
- Fed balance sheet: [expanding (QE) / shrinking (QT) / stable]
- Corporate bond yields (HQM): AAA {%}, A {%} — credit stress level

### Market Valuation Context
- S&P 500 P/E: {value} vs historical avg (~18) — [cheap / fair / expensive]
- VIX: {level} — [complacent <15 / normal 15-20 / fearful 20-30 / panic >30]

### Implications for {TICKER}
- Sector rate sensitivity: [high / moderate / low] (e.g., REITs, banks, tech duration)
- Macro headwinds: {1-2 specific risks}
- Macro tailwinds: {1-2 specific opportunities}
- Short pressure: volume {%}, interest {days to cover}

### Signal: [FAVORABLE / UNFAVORABLE / MIXED]
### Confidence: {1-10}
### Key Risk: {one-line macro risk for this stock}
```

## Rules

- **Yield curve inversion is the strongest recession predictor** — flag it prominently
- **SLOOS tightening precedes recessions by 6-12 months** — critical leading indicator
- **CLI below 100 and falling = recession warning**
- **VIX > 30 = fear** — contrarian buy signal for quality stocks
- Contextualize for the specific stock's sector sensitivity
- Keep under 600 words (macro requires more context than other analyses)