---
name: trade-analyze
description: "Deep trading analysis with multi-agent debate. Collects comprehensive data, spawns Bull/Bear/Hawk/Dove agents for debate, outputs final verdict. Use when user says /trade-analyze or wants deep analysis."
user-invocable: true
metadata: { "openclaw": { "emoji": "⚖️", "requires": { "bins": ["curl"] } } }
---

# Trade Analysis — Multi-Agent Debate Pipeline

**You are the judge. Debate agents work in the background via sessions_spawn. Only YOU post to Discord.**

**IMPORTANT: Use `sessions_spawn` (NOT sessions_send — it will timeout).**

## Step 1: Collect Data

Run these curl commands using `exec`. Combine into one command for speed:

```bash
BASE=https://invest-api.k8s.home

# All-in-one summary (quote + profile + metrics + financials)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/stock/{TICKER}/summary"

# Technical composite (RSI, MACD, SMA, EMA, Bollinger + signals)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/stock/{TICKER}/technical"

# Composite sentiment (news + analysts + reddit + upgrades)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/stock/{TICKER}/sentiment"

# Macro overview (Fed rate, yields, CPI, unemployment, GDP, VIX)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/macro/overview"

# Analyst price targets and recent upgrades/downgrades
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/stock/{TICKER}/upgrades"

# Short selling pressure
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/stock/{TICKER}/shorts/volume"

# CAPM risk decomposition
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/stock/{TICKER}/capm"

# Sortino ratio (downside risk)
curl -sk "$BASE/api/v1/stock/{TICKER}/sortino?days=365"
```

Summarize key data points into a concise data package (under 600 words) covering:
- Price, PE, ROE, revenue growth, beta
- RSI, MACD, SMA alignment, Bollinger position
- Sentiment score, insider activity, analyst consensus
- Fed rate, yield curve, VIX
- Short interest, CAPM alpha
- Sortino ratio

## Step 2: Bull Case

Use `sessions_spawn`:

```json
{
  "task": "You are the Bull Researcher for {TICKER}. Build your bullish thesis with 3-5 data-backed arguments. Include entry price, target, and timeframe. Under 400 words.\n\nData:\n{data package}",
  "agentId": "invest-bull",
  "label": "bull-{TICKER}"
}
```

**Wait for announce before proceeding.**

## Step 3: Bear Case

```json
{
  "task": "You are the Bear Researcher for {TICKER}. Bull argued:\n\n{Bull's argument}\n\nCounter with 3-5 data-backed bearish points. Under 400 words.",
  "agentId": "invest-bear",
  "label": "bear-{TICKER}"
}
```

**Wait for announce.**

## Step 4: Bull Rebuttal (FINAL)

```json
{
  "task": "FINAL rebuttal for {TICKER}. Bear argued:\n\n{Bear's argument}\n\nCounter Bear's strongest point. State your final conviction. Under 300 words.",
  "agentId": "invest-bull",
  "label": "bull-final-{TICKER}"
}
```

**STOP Bull/Bear after this. Maximum 3 spawns.**

## Step 5: Hawk Risk

Formulate a preliminary trading proposal based on the debate, then:

```json
{
  "task": "Aggressive risk assessment for {TICKER}. Propose position size, entry, stop-loss, target with exact numbers.\n\nProposal: {BUY/SELL at $X, stop $Y, target $Z}\nBull case: {summary}\nBear case: {summary}",
  "agentId": "invest-hawk",
  "label": "hawk-{TICKER}"
}
```

## Step 6: Dove Risk

```json
{
  "task": "Conservative risk assessment for {TICKER}. Hawk proposed:\n\n{Hawk's response}\n\nPropose safer position sizing and entry strategy. Under 300 words.",
  "agentId": "invest-dove",
  "label": "dove-{TICKER}"
}
```

## Step 7: Final Verdict

After ALL 5 spawns complete, synthesize and output this **single message** to Discord:

```
# ⚖️ Trading Verdict: {TICKER}

## Decision: [BUY / SELL / HOLD]
## Confidence: {1-10}/10

### Summary
{2-3 sentences — the core thesis}

### 📊 Data Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|--------|-------|--------|
| Price | ${} | - |
| P/E | {} | {cheap/fair/rich} |
| RSI | {} | {OB/OS/neutral} |
| MACD | {} | {bull/bear cross} |
| Sentiment | {} | {bull/bear/neutral} |
| Short Interest | {}% | {low/mod/high} |
| VIX | {} | {fear level} |

### Entry Plan
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Action | BUY/SELL/HOLD |
| Entry | ${price} |
| Stop-loss | ${price} ({%} risk) |
| Target | ${price} ({%} upside) |
| Position | {%} of portfolio |
| Timeframe | {weeks/months} |
| Risk:Reward | {ratio} |

### 🐂 Bull Case
1. {strongest data-backed point}
2. {second point}
3. {third point}

### 🐻 Bear Case
1. {strongest data-backed point}
2. {second point}
3. {third point}

### Risk Assessment
| Analyst | Position | Stop | Strategy |
|---------|----------|------|----------|
| 🦅 Hawk | {%} | ${} | {approach} |
| 🕊️ Dove | {%} | ${} | {approach} |
| **Adopted** | **{%}** | **${}** | **{rationale}** |

### ⚠️ Catalysts & Risks
- Upcoming: {earnings date, ex-div date, FOMC meeting if relevant}
- Key risk: {single biggest risk}
- Key catalyst: {single biggest upside trigger}
```

## Step 8: Save to Memory

Write decision summary to today's memory log.

## Rules

1. **Use `sessions_spawn`** with `agentId` — NOT sessions_send
2. **Wait for each announce** before spawning next
3. **Only YOU post to Discord** — spawn agents are silent
4. **Max 5 spawns**: Bull(2) + Bear(1) + Hawk(1) + Dove(1)
5. If spawn times out, note it and continue
6. **Never use @ mentions**
7. The verdict should be ONE comprehensive message, not multiple